OPEC+ is preparing to implement another significant oil production boost in September, a move that continues the group’s recent shift from curbing supply to aggressively reclaiming market share.
Bloomberg reported, citing an OPEC+ delegate, that the group is expected to approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day during its upcoming video conference on Sunday.
This latest decision would mark the final stage of reversing the 2.2 million-barrel per day cut enacted by eight member countries in 2023.
Additionally, it accounts for a previously agreed allowance for the United Arab Emirates that is currently being phased in.
The decision, while not yet formalized, reflects a broader strategic pivot by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, to respond to evolving global energy dynamics.
Shift from price defense to market reclaiming
OPEC+’s production strategy has undergone a notable transformation in recent months.
Where once the group was focused on supporting prices through voluntary supply restraints, it has now moved toward increased output to regain market share and ease consumer price pressures.
This pivot comes amid seasonal demand strength, geopolitical uncertainties, and political pressure from major consumer nations.
This policy change has already had a visible impact on oil markets.
Brent crude, which had plunged to a four-year low in April following OPEC+’s surprise acceleration of output restoration, has since recovered some ground, trading just below $70 per barrel on Friday.
Despite the rebound, prices remain down approximately 6.7% year-to-date. Gasoline futures have also softened, offering relief at the pump for consumers, particularly in the United States.
Notably, the increase in supply serves multiple geopolitical and economic interests.
In the US, the move could be seen as a political win for President Donald Trump, who has consistently pushed for lower energy prices while urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
With retail gasoline prices in the US edging down in July, the supply increase appears to be achieving some of its intended effect.
Attention turns to remaining output cuts
With the 2.2 million-barrel-per-day rollback nearly complete, markets are beginning to shift their attention to the remaining 1.66 million barrels per day of production still offline.
This portion of supply, according to current OPEC+ timelines, is scheduled to remain inactive until the end of 2026.
However, the pace and success of the ongoing unwind may prompt reconsideration of this timetable.
The market outlook remains mixed. While demand has improved over the summer, analysts caution that the accelerating pace of supply growth—especially amid slowing global economic activity—could tip the market into surplus later this year.
Should this occur, it may add renewed downward pressure on crude prices.
Meanwhile, diplomatic developments continue to intersect with energy policy. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s rare visit to Riyadh on Thursday underscored the close coordination between Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two leading nations within OPEC+.
The trip reportedly focused on continued cooperation amid ongoing tensions, including US threats to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers if the Ukraine conflict persists.
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