SovEcon has significantly increased its projection for Russian wheat production in 2025, raising it by 1.1 million metric tons to an impressive 87.2 mmt.
This updated forecast suggests a robust harvest, comfortably exceeding last year’s 82.6 mmt.
The revised figures bring the expected output close to the multi-year average of 88.3 mmt, largely attributed to exceptional, record-high yields observed in the key agricultural regions of Siberia and the Urals, the agricultural consultancy said in its latest update.
Estimates for wheat production in two key Russian regions have been significantly revised upwards, indicating a strong harvest.
Siberia’s projected wheat output has been increased by a substantial 1.1 mmt, bringing its total estimate to 9.7 mmt.
Similarly, the Urals region has seen its forecast raised by 0.3 mmt, reaching a new estimate of 4.1 mmt.
These upward revisions are particularly noteworthy as both Siberia and the Urals are anticipated to achieve record final yields for the current agricultural season.
This promising outlook for wheat production in these regions contributes positively to the overall agricultural landscape and potentially impacts global grain markets.
Favourable weather
“For the second year in a row, wheat harvesting in the Urals and Siberia is progressing slower than average due to heavy rainfall,” SovEcon said.
However, this year yields are record-high thanks to favorable weather for most of the season.
In the coming fortnight, Russia is anticipated to experience predominantly dry weather conditions across the majority of its regions.
This favourable meteorological outlook is expected to significantly expedite the ongoing wheat harvesting efforts, particularly in the crucial agricultural zones of the Urals and Siberia.
The absence of significant rainfall during this period will allow farmers to operate harvesting machinery more efficiently and continuously, reducing delays often caused by wet conditions.
This could lead to a more rapid collection of the wheat crop, potentially influencing regional grain supplies and market dynamics.
European Russia and the USDA forecast
Simultaneously, agricultural forecasts for European Russia have taken a turn for the worse.
Wheat production in the Central region is now forecast at 21.3 mmt, a 0.3 mmt reduction.
This decline is attributed to heavy rains late in the harvest season, which negatively impacted yields.
In its September report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) upwardly revised its projection for Russian wheat production by 1.5 million metric tons (mmt), bringing the new forecast to a total of 85.0 mmt.
This adjustment reflects an updated assessment of the harvest outlook, likely influenced by favourable weather conditions or better-than-expected yields observed during the growing season.
“The steady upgrades to Russia’s crop outlook in recent weeks are one of the major bearish stories for the global wheat market,” Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon, said.
Still, much of this improvement is in the Asian part of the country, where moving wheat to ports is costly and slow — more than 2,000 km from the Urals to Azov ports and over 3,000 km from Western Siberia.
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