A fragile but palpable sense of relief drifted across European markets on Tuesday, with stocks edging higher as investors cautiously embraced the diplomatic progress emerging from the White House.
The high-stakes summit between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European leaders has injected a dose of optimism into a market desperate for a path to peace.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up 0.1% in early London trading, a modest gain that nonetheless signaled a positive reaction to the talks.
This quiet optimism follows a mixed session in Asia and comes as US stock futures tick lower, suggesting the world is holding its collective breath, waiting for the next major catalyst.
The peace dividend and its casualties
The market’s reaction, however, was not uniform. In a dramatic illustration of how geopolitics can reshape entire sectors, the prospect of peace sent a shockwave through Europe’s defense industry.
While the broader market rose, the Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense index fell 0.4%.
The sell-off was sharp among the continent’s biggest arms manufacturers: German tank parts maker Renk dropped 3.6%, Sweden’s Saab fell 3.3%, and the Italian defense giant Leonardo shed 2.9%. For these companies, the hint of a resolution is a direct threat to their bottom line.
The view from Washington
This stark divergence was triggered by the surprisingly concrete developments from Monday’s summit. Investors were buoyed by Trump’s declaration that peace negotiations could proceed even without a prior ceasefire, a significant shift in the diplomatic landscape.
He also stated that security guarantees for Ukraine would be “provided” by European nations with “coordination with the US.”
Adding to the sense of momentum, Zelenskiy himself announced that a package of coveted security guarantees—expected to include a massive purchase of American weapons—would be “formalized on paper within the next week to 10 days.”
Perhaps most significantly, the US president confirmed that a direct meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskiy is now being planned, to be followed by a trilateral summit that would include Trump.
From Washington to Wyoming: all eyes on the Fed
With the immediate geopolitical temperature seemingly lowered, the market’s focus is now pivoting from the White House to the mountains of Wyoming.
Central bankers from around the globe are set to convene for the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, and investors will be hanging on every word from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
His speech on Thursday is seen as the next major test for a market hovering near record highs. Traders are desperately seeking clues about the central bank’s path, especially regarding a potential interest rate cut in September.
Currently, the Fed funds futures market is indicating an overwhelming 83% chance for a quarter-point rate cut at the next policy meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Any deviation from that expectation could easily shatter the market’s fragile calm.
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